The prospect of air taxis, specifically electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, has been a captivating topic in the aviation industry. As the technology edges closer to becoming a reality, there’s a big question on everyone’s minds: how much will it really cost to ride in an air taxi?
The eVTOL Hype
Investors have poured billions into eVTOL companies like Joby Aviation, Lilium, and Volocopter. These companies promise a new form of urban transportation that is not only convenient and safe, but also environmentally friendly. Some companies, such as Archer Aviation, are projecting that on-demand, electric air taxis could be flying short hops over major cities as soon as 2024.
The cost for each passenger is projected to range from $2.25 per mile to as much as $11 per mile. However, these projections are based on several unpredictable factors, and some industry experts question whether these estimates are realistic. Producing eVTOL aircraft and establishing an air taxi service presents unique challenges and is extremely capital intensive.
Factors that Will Influence the Price
If and when the eVTOL industry gets off the ground, several key factors will influence the price passengers will pay.
End-to-End Pricing
The industry must consider the costs of the entire journey, not just the air travel. How will passengers reach the eVTOL takeoff and landing points, or vertiports? By foot? By Uber or Lyft? Customers need to be able to compare the price of the entire trip, not just the air taxi portion.
On-Demand Rideshare: Does it Make Sense?
The concept of on-demand ridesharing with eVTOLs is a tantalizing one, but the feasibility of this model is still questionable. The aircraft will be expensive to build—estimated prices per unit range from about $1 million to more than $3 million. To pay for these aircraft, the number of flights and passengers must be consistently high.
A network of scheduled eVTOL flights might attract enough passengers to pay for these expensive electric aircraft over time, but there’s a problem with that too. Scheduled networks might become less appealing to customers, as they require passengers to adjust their life to the schedule, potentially reducing their willingness to pay.
Pilots and Training
Emerging eVTOL airlines plan to rely on the existing pool of available commercial pilots for their workforce. Training pilots to fly eVTOLs would cost money. Airlines are also facing pilot shortages. If there are enough pilots to fly these new fleets of eVTOLs, will economic supply and demand allow pilots to command premium salaries? These hidden costs will have to be factored into passenger prices.
Real-World Comparisons
Blade Urban Air Mobility is a current on-demand air taxi service that offers real-world comparisons. Blade uses fuel-burning helicopters but shares with the eVTOL the concept of vertical flight and on-demand rideshares from established takeoff and landing zones.
Within 30 minutes of booking on Blade, you can fly between Manhattan’s West 30th Street Heliport and John F. Kennedy International Airport for $195 per seat in about five minutes. Blade’s price point appeals more to the business traveler, not the everyday commuter.
Calculating the Real Cost
Robin Riedel of McKinsey & Company provides an educated guess about the actual price per passenger for a hypothetical eVTOL flight. With an estimated price per passenger per mile of $3.30, a 25-mile trip would cost $82.50. Robin suggests that eVTOL flights would be more comparable to a black car livery service, not a basic car rideshare.
The Future of eVTOLs
Currently, several U.S. companies, including Joby and Archer, are moving steadily toward FAA certification for their eVTOL aircraft. Joby has flown its prototype, and Archer is expected to fly one by the end of this year. In Europe, Lilium, Volocopter, and others are moving closer to certifying their eVTOLs with EASA.
The eVTOL industry is still in its infancy, and many of the projected costs are based on optimistic assumptions. While the promise of convenient, safe, and environmentally friendly urban transportation is appealing, the reality of achieving these goals may be more complex and costly than initially projected.
The real cost of a ride in an air taxi will depend on a multitude of factors, including the costs of the aircraft, pilots, and infrastructure, as well as whether companies can achieve high utilization rates. The industry will need to overcome these challenges before air taxis can become a viable and affordable form of transportation for the masses.
In the meantime, the development and certification of eVTOL aircraft continues, bringing us one step closer to a future where air taxis are a regular part of urban transportation. But as with any emerging industry, there are likely to be bumps in the road ahead.